Liu Shijin: China’s economy has shifted from conventional growth to a long-term war epidemic growth model

Liu Shijin: China’s economy has shifted from conventional growth to a long-term war epidemic growth model
According to the latest statistics released by Johns Hopkins University in the United States, the number of newly diagnosed cases of new coronary pneumonia in the world is approaching 2 million, and the WHO recently found that the epidemic has not yet reached its peak.The overseas epidemic continues to spread, and the Chinese economy continues to be under pressure due to this.How to treat the impact of this second wave of overseas epidemic on China’s economy?What is the expected growth of China’s economy in 2020?Liu Shijin, former deputy director of the Development Research Center of the State Council, believes that the second wave of shocks will be much longer than the first wave of shocks, and the probability of growth impairment will exceed that of the former. China ‘s economy will have to shift from a conventional growth modelThe “war epidemic growth model” of the period.”Most can achieve a growth of about 3%, which is a big victory.”” Liu Shijin also said that in the case of changes in the growth background, the assessment of growth targets should also be adjusted accordingly.It is recommended to adopt a “relatively relative” assessment method, which is to use the ratio or difference between China’s growth rate and the world’s average growth rate.”If the world growth rate is -2 in 2020.5%, 3% in China, and 5 in relative terms.5% is higher than last year.”In the face of complex domestic and foreign economic indicators, how to position the policy?Liu Shijin suggested that short-term policies should focus on “recovery”, “rescue” and “risk-avoidance”, and the focus of the rescue assistance is on small and medium-sized enterprises and low-income people, thus relying on fiscal policy to exert force.The focus of hedging is to prevent the financial system from being shut down and chaotic due to liquidity tensions. China should have the ability to keep monetary policy normal without having to follow negative interest rates.Liu Shijin did not expect that at this stage to achieve steady economic growth, first and foremost is steady consumption, especially residents’ consumption, while infrastructure investment cannot stabilize the overall situation of China’s economy.So how to promote consumption?He suggested direct subsidies for low-income groups.”(Subsidies) cannot take the form, drizzle, and have a large enough amount to reach the monthly income or consumption level of low-income people.”In the medium and long term, how can reform be used to stimulate economic growth momentum?Liu Shijin believes that substantial deepening of reform is the best stimulus policy.The accelerated development of metropolitan areas and urban agglomerations is the largest structural potential of China’s economic growth. It is necessary to promote the construction of metropolitan areas through the reform of factor markets.”The outstanding problem of infrastructure investment is the wrong place and mechanism of investment.In the metropolitan area, there is little chance of error.”Sauna Night Net: The impact of the overseas epidemic is under pressure as one of China’s economic troika’s exports.How do you view the impact of overseas epidemics on the Chinese economy?Liu Shijin: First, the second wave of impact cannot be underestimated.At the beginning of this year, China’s economy was first hit by the epidemic. The economy almost stopped for more than a month, and it is now gradually recovering.However, the overseas epidemic situation is in a state of rising anxiety, and in general there is no turning point.According to the latest estimate by the WTO, the impact of global economic growth on the tilt of the ground in 2020 will be reduced by -2.5% to -8.8%, export growth rate is -17.1% to -40.9%, the import growth rate is -14.5% to -33.8%.China’s exports fell 11 quarters in the first quarter.4%, imports fell by 0.7%.After the second quarter, it is expected that the impact of overseas epidemics on China ‘s imports and exports will intensify and will become the second wave of impact on the Chinese economy.Relevant research conclusions, China’s imports and exports are expected to appear 15% -20% substitution, of which the decline in service trade.There is a view that because net exports account for a relatively low share of GDP, as long as net exports do not exhibit large negative growth, the impact on domestic growth is limited.This is true under normal growth, but if the short-term internal reduction of exports is too large, resulting in the suspension of a large number of export enterprises and production, it will directly affect domestic consumption, investment and employment.By expanding the budget analysis can be polished, a decline in exports and a merger will affect 0.2 nominal GDP.According to recent information, there has been a steep decline in orders from foreign trade companies.The impact of the 2008 international financial crisis on the Chinese economy also confirmed this.At that time, exports fell by 30 digits from a high point, driving GDP down by 7 subdivisions.When the second wave of shocks alleviates directly determines the trend of the international epidemic, and there are three great uncertainties in the international epidemic.First, the United States, Europe, Japan and other countries have shown inflection points after the reduction, but under the current control mode, it may be difficult to clear them in a short period of time like China, and there will be a fairly long tail;Third, whether the epidemic will exist across years or even for a long time.In this context, the second wave of shocks will be much longer than the first wave of shocks, and the growth and impairment will also exceed the former.I agree with the statement that the end of the global epidemic does not mean the country where the epidemic ended, but the worst country because we are on the same interconnected earth.Because of this, we will have to face and adapt to the reality that we have shifted from the conventional growth model to the “war epidemic growth model” for a long period of time.The salient feature of this growth model is the need to pay a “war epidemic discount cost”, which means that some resources must always be allocated to internal anti-rebound, external anti-input, and the economy is difficult to operate at full horsepower to achieve potential advantages.Sauna, Ye Wang Hou Runfang Editor Wang Jinyu proofread Li Ming