Liu Shijin: China’s economy has shifted from conventional growth to a long-term war epidemic growth model

Liu Shijin: China’s economy has shifted from conventional growth to a long-term war epidemic growth model
According to the latest statistics released by Johns Hopkins University in the United States, the number of newly diagnosed cases of new coronary pneumonia in the world is approaching 2 million, and the WHO recently found that the epidemic has not yet reached its peak.The overseas epidemic continues to spread, and the Chinese economy continues to be under pressure due to this.How to treat the impact of this second wave of overseas epidemic on China’s economy?What is the expected growth of China’s economy in 2020?Liu Shijin, former deputy director of the Development Research Center of the State Council, believes that the second wave of shocks will be much longer than the first wave of shocks, and the probability of growth impairment will exceed that of the former. China ‘s economy will have to shift from a conventional growth modelThe “war epidemic growth model” of the period.”Most can achieve a growth of about 3%, which is a big victory.”” Liu Shijin also said that in the case of changes in the growth background, the assessment of growth targets should also be adjusted accordingly.It is recommended to adopt a “relatively relative” assessment method, which is to use the ratio or difference between China’s growth rate and the world’s average growth rate.”If the world growth rate is -2 in 2020.5%, 3% in China, and 5 in relative terms.5% is higher than last year.”In the face of complex domestic and foreign economic indicators, how to position the policy?Liu Shijin suggested that short-term policies should focus on “recovery”, “rescue” and “risk-avoidance”, and the focus of the rescue assistance is on small and medium-sized enterprises and low-income people, thus relying on fiscal policy to exert force.The focus of hedging is to prevent the financial system from being shut down and chaotic due to liquidity tensions. China should have the ability to keep monetary policy normal without having to follow negative interest rates.Liu Shijin did not expect that at this stage to achieve steady economic growth, first and foremost is steady consumption, especially residents’ consumption, while infrastructure investment cannot stabilize the overall situation of China’s economy.So how to promote consumption?He suggested direct subsidies for low-income groups.”(Subsidies) cannot take the form, drizzle, and have a large enough amount to reach the monthly income or consumption level of low-income people.”In the medium and long term, how can reform be used to stimulate economic growth momentum?Liu Shijin believes that substantial deepening of reform is the best stimulus policy.The accelerated development of metropolitan areas and urban agglomerations is the largest structural potential of China’s economic growth. It is necessary to promote the construction of metropolitan areas through the reform of factor markets.”The outstanding problem of infrastructure investment is the wrong place and mechanism of investment.In the metropolitan area, there is little chance of error.”Sauna Night Net: The impact of the overseas epidemic is under pressure as one of China’s economic troika’s exports.How do you view the impact of overseas epidemics on the Chinese economy?Liu Shijin: First, the second wave of impact cannot be underestimated.At the beginning of this year, China’s economy was first hit by the epidemic. The economy almost stopped for more than a month, and it is now gradually recovering.However, the overseas epidemic situation is in a state of rising anxiety, and in general there is no turning point.According to the latest estimate by the WTO, the impact of global economic growth on the tilt of the ground in 2020 will be reduced by -2.5% to -8.8%, export growth rate is -17.1% to -40.9%, the import growth rate is -14.5% to -33.8%.China’s exports fell 11 quarters in the first quarter.4%, imports fell by 0.7%.After the second quarter, it is expected that the impact of overseas epidemics on China ‘s imports and exports will intensify and will become the second wave of impact on the Chinese economy.Relevant research conclusions, China’s imports and exports are expected to appear 15% -20% substitution, of which the decline in service trade.There is a view that because net exports account for a relatively low share of GDP, as long as net exports do not exhibit large negative growth, the impact on domestic growth is limited.This is true under normal growth, but if the short-term internal reduction of exports is too large, resulting in the suspension of a large number of export enterprises and production, it will directly affect domestic consumption, investment and employment.By expanding the budget analysis can be polished, a decline in exports and a merger will affect 0.2 nominal GDP.According to recent information, there has been a steep decline in orders from foreign trade companies.The impact of the 2008 international financial crisis on the Chinese economy also confirmed this.At that time, exports fell by 30 digits from a high point, driving GDP down by 7 subdivisions.When the second wave of shocks alleviates directly determines the trend of the international epidemic, and there are three great uncertainties in the international epidemic.First, the United States, Europe, Japan and other countries have shown inflection points after the reduction, but under the current control mode, it may be difficult to clear them in a short period of time like China, and there will be a fairly long tail;Third, whether the epidemic will exist across years or even for a long time.In this context, the second wave of shocks will be much longer than the first wave of shocks, and the growth and impairment will also exceed the former.I agree with the statement that the end of the global epidemic does not mean the country where the epidemic ended, but the worst country because we are on the same interconnected earth.Because of this, we will have to face and adapt to the reality that we have shifted from the conventional growth model to the “war epidemic growth model” for a long period of time.The salient feature of this growth model is the need to pay a “war epidemic discount cost”, which means that some resources must always be allocated to internal anti-rebound, external anti-input, and the economy is difficult to operate at full horsepower to achieve potential advantages.Sauna, Ye Wang Hou Runfang Editor Wang Jinyu proofread Li Ming

007: No Time to Die Uncle Teeth Demonstration Bond

“007: No Time to Die” “Uncle Teeth” Demonstration Bond
Anna de Amas Rushner Lynch Bili recently, the 007 series 25th film “007: No Time to Die” has exposed the TV version of the trailer and the theme song “No Time To Die” version of the trailer, the theme song by 18Year-old singer “Bi Li” Billie Eilish sang, she also became the youngest singer to sing 007 theme song.Some fans commented: It is also the theme song of the 007 series, and the sense of power is 100 pounds less than that of “007: The Big Breaking Sky”.However, it is also interesting to use the transparent and fragile voice of a young adult to express the contrast of the old 007.  The film is the fifth 007 movie starring Daniel Craig and will also be his last appearance in 007 James Bond. The story is about Bond enjoying retirement in Jamaica after retirement, but friends from the CIA came to ask for help.The mission is to rescue a kidnapped scientist. Bond will face a mysterious villain equipped with dangerous new technology.Film investment 2.500 million US dollars, is the most expensive 007 movie in history. This time Bond ‘s footprint will span Jamaica, Britain, Italy, Norway and other places around the world. There are also many big scenes in the trailer, such as bridge flying cranes, motorcycles, etc.Imagined action scenes bring the most intuitive sensory stimulation.    Production cost 2.The production cost of the most expensive “007” “007: No Time to Die” in the history of 500 million US dollars is as high as 2.500 million US dollars, breaking the “007: Ghost Party” maintained by 2.The $ 4.5 billion record makes this film the most expensive “007” movie in history.Since Daniel Craig became “James Bond”, the production cost of the “007” movie has been rising all the way.In 2007, the production cost of “007 vs. Royal Air Force” was 1.500 million US dollars, the production cost of “007: Breaking the Quantum Crisis” in 2008 and “007: Breaking the Sky” in 2012 are both 200 million US dollars, and the production cost of “007: Ghost Party” in 2015 reached 2.$ 45 billion.The high production cost of “007: Ghost Party” is mainly due to a large number of actual stunts and sets, including the Guinness World Record for the largest movie stunt blast in film history.In addition, the lead actor Daniel Craig’s remuneration is also increasing, which has also pushed up the production cost of the film.Last year, the United States “Variety” magazine had exposed Hollywood’s first-star celebrity remuneration. At that time, Daniel Craig was ranked first, and his rehearsal in “007: No Time to Die” reached $ 25 million.  The role of the two Bon girls is competing, and the female “007” appears in Bond. When spying, Bond can always meet the sexy and dangerous “Bang girl” and encounter a romantic love with it. In the “007” series of moviesBang girl is also a highlight of the plot.Dr. Madeleine Swan, who first appeared in 2015 in “007: Ghost Party”, is the daughter of Ghost Party agent Mr. White. Later she and Bond fell in love and became his companions.At the end of “007: Ghost Party”, Bond rescued Dr. Swan from the evil Brofield’s claws. After Bond retired, the two disappeared into the afterglow of the setting sun.In the latest “007: No Time to Die” movie, she will still appear, and she will live a quiet life in Jamaica after Bond retired. This is also the French actor Leia Saidu’s two consecutive appearances in “Bon Girl”.  In the last year’s movie “Blade”, she worked with “Bond” Daniel Craig, and played the role of the home nurse’s heroine Anna de Armas, also appeared in “007: No time to die””, Starred in the new state girl.In the film, she plays a CIA agent. In the previous trailer, she played only a few seconds, wearing a black dress, very sexy and glamorous.The difference between “007: No Time to Die” and previous Bond films is that women in the film will play a more important role in the stage. This film even invited a female screenwriter to portray the female characters in the film and createHas become a more perfect female character than ever.Obviously, this Bang girl will be different from the previous Bang girl. It is exciting to see how the new Bang girl will perform in the movie.  In addition, there is a female character in the film. Black chief Rushner Lynch will inherit the code name “007” in the film. She previously played a female pilot in the Marvel movie “Captain Marvel”.  The two Oscars starred in the villain similar to “Bon Girl”, and the villain role is also an indispensable selling point in the “007” movie.Christoph Waltz, who played the villain in the previous “007: Ghost Party”, returned to “007: No Time to Die”, as can be seen in the trailer, he is still being held in prison.In addition, the film also ushered in a new villain. Last year’s recognized music biopic “Bohemian Rhapsody” won the Oscar’s best actor “Uncle Tooth” Rami Marek will star in “007: No time”Go to Death” and played a villain called Safin in the movie.Judging from the trailer, this villain’s territory is full of very obvious scars, and his appearance is different.In addition to this, this villain also often appeared a white mask.  Rami Marek revealed that the wounds on Safin ‘s body were not so simple, “We will not take off a mask from our body.We must think very concretely about what is the most cumulative.If the scar has no meaning to the story and character of the movie, then it can be said that the scar has lost its influence.”For the Air Force, Rami Marek also recorded a video of” Challenge Demonstration “. He said:” I assure you that I will ensure that Mr. Bond will not succeed in the 25th operation.”This fully shows that he starred in the film will be a very difficult person to deal with.”  Behind the scenes Bi Licheng is the youngest singer to sing the theme song 007. At the Brit Awards a few days ago, “Bi Li” sang the theme song “No Time To Die” of the movie “007: No Time to Die”.The song was written by 18-year-old “Bi Li” with her brother Finneas, and she became the youngest singer to write and sing the theme song for 007.主题曲《No Time To Die》于2月13日已通过环球唱片公司发行,首日在Spotify全球榜上716万空降第一。  最近几部007电影主题曲都是由当年最火的流行歌手演唱。2011年是英国歌手阿黛尔爆发的一年,专辑《21》全球销量达到3200万,是21世纪销量最高的录音室专辑,其中的一首《Someone like you》更是传唱度极高。次年便被邀请创作及演唱《007:大破天幕杀机》的主题曲《Skyfall》,拿下奥斯卡最佳原创歌曲奖。2014年,年仅21岁的英国歌手萨姆·史密斯在英国BBC年度之声夺得冠军,次年首张专辑《In the Lonely Hour》抱回四座格莱美奖,2015年创作并演唱了《007:幽灵党》主题曲《Writing's On The Wall》,也获得了奥斯卡最佳原创歌曲奖。在2020年第62届格莱美颁奖典礼上,“碧梨”获得最佳流行专辑,并包揽年度专辑、年度单曲、年度新人、年度制作四大奖项,以18岁的年龄成为达成此项成就的最年轻艺人。  桑拿、夜网 滕朝