Brokers fight-CITIC Securities said this month that Guotai Junan was lowered and said the probability is low

Brokers fight: CITIC Securities said this month that Guotai Junan was lowered and said the probability is low

Sina Finance News on April 8. According to the recent discussions on the reduction of the deposit reserve ratio in the market, the research teams of major securities firms have different opinions on the necessity, timing, and margin of reduction.

  Today, CITIC Securities’ clear bond research team released a report that from the perspective of the liquidity gap in April and the second quarter, the expected increase in the RRR cut is reasonable.

It is expected that there will be a nearly 1 trillion liquidity gap in April, which is a total of 1 in the second quarter.

2 trillion MLF expires, exceeding 1 in the third quarter.

The 66 trillion MLF expires, and the expiry of large-scale MLF has opened up space for the RRR cut.

Although some breakthroughs have been made to crack down on the expectation of the RRR cut, the “Guiding Opinions on Promoting the Healthy Development of Small and Medium-sized Enterprises” once again clearly proposed the introduction of the inclusive financial targeted reduction policy, and in accordance with the previous targeted reduction policy, 4 monthsThe probability of landing is still contradictory.

  However, Guotai Junan Qin Han’s team held the opposite attitude, thinking that there is currently a dispute on the April level cut. Considering that rumors have been clearly reorganized, in order to avoid causing market confusion, the probability of a level cut in April becomes very low.

  At the same time, Qin Han believes that the current signal of economic stabilization is not sufficient, and if the currency is tightened rashly, it may prematurely “strangle” the signs of economic stabilization.

Even if the benchmark is not lowered for four months, the tone of maintaining “reasonable abundance” of liquidity has not changed. It is expected that the capital level will continue to change at the bottom, and the probability of central diffusion going up is not high.

And once the expectations of subsequent economic fundamentals are repeated, there is only room for policy to hedge against, and then the loose space will be opened again.

  Haitong Securities ‘Jiang Chao team also released a report saying that preliminary rumors were lowered last week, while the reverse repurchase operation was suspended.

We believe that the RRR cut may be postponed again because the economy rebounded short-term in March and the breakthrough also rebounded significantly. The fundamental point of view does not support an immediate RRR cut.

In addition, this year’s fiscal and tax cuts have greatly reduced the need to expand monetary easing.

In addition, the current market liquidity is still abundant, so there is no need to immediately reduce the level.

  In addition, Shen Jianguang, chief economist of Jingdong Mathematics, has five major reasons for not reducing the allowance in the short term: First, from the perspective of fundamentals, countercyclical policies have been slightly effective, driving the economy to bottom out and stabilizing; second, 杭州桑拿网 short-termThere are long-term upward pressures, and there is room for further relaxation in compliance with monetary policy. The third is that short-term liquidity tensions can be alleviated through various open market operations. The fourth is to prevent the recurrence of asset bubbles and the use of benchmarking tools will be more careful.It is the main contradiction of current monetary policy rather than tight liquidity, or the actual reduction of other monetary policy substitution mechanisms.

China Communications Construction (601800): Q2 revenue growth accelerates single quarter cash flow is good

China Communications Construction (601800): Q2 revenue growth accelerates single quarter cash flow is good

The amount of new contract signed by H1 in 2019 is 4,967.

2.8 billion, an annual increase of 15.

85%.

Among them, the newly signed contracts of Q1 and Q2 companies increased by 13 respectively.

38%, 17.

62% of new contracts for infrastructure construction, infrastructure design, and dredging business were changed and moved15.

53%, -18.

26%, 54.

18%.

The H1 company achieved operating income of 2402 in 2019.

72 ppm, an increase of 15 per year.

31%.

Among them, Q1 and Q2 revenues increased by 9 respectively.

6%, 19.

89%, infrastructure, design, and dredging revenue increased by 15 respectively.

17%, 21.

33%, 1.

45%; by region, domestic and overseas income increased by 17 respectively.

93%, 5.

twenty two%.

The company achieved comprehensive gross profit margin for H1 in 201911.

88%, down by 1 every year.

99 points.

Among them, the gross profit margin of infrastructure construction, infrastructure design, and dredging business respectively changed Mobile-1.

82pct, -1.

98 points, -1.

73pct.

The company’s expenses during H1 2019 accounted for 7.

32%, a decrease of 0 from last year.

76pct, total credit impairment + asset impairment accounted for 0.

37%, a decrease of 0 per year.

36 南京桑拿网 points.

The company achieved net profit of 3 in 2019H1.

98%, a decline of 0 every year.

16pct. The decrease in net interest margin was less than the gross profit margin, which was mainly due to the decrease in the rate and the percentage of impairment losses during the period.

The company’s 2019H1 budget net operating cash flow is -2.

45 yuan, reduced by 0 every year.

42 yuan / share, mainly due to the decline in the cash-to-cash ratio.From the perspective of the cash-to-cash ratio, the company’s cash-to-cash ratio is 83.

77%, 95.

63%, down by 0 compared with the same period last year.

78 points, 3.

97 points.

Earnings forecast and rating: We have adjusted the company’s earnings forecast and expect the company’s EPS for 2019-2021 to be 1.

31 yuan, 1.

44 yuan, 1.

59 yuan, the closing price on August 重庆桑拿网 30 corresponds to PE 7.

6 times, 6.

9 times, 6.

3 times, maintaining the level of “prudent increase”.

Risk reminder: Macroeconomic downside risks, less-than-expected overseas business expansion, changes in overseas policies, less-than-expected construction progress, less-than-expected new growth orders, and risk of exchange losses due to exchange rate changes

Liuyao Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd. (603368): Pure drug sales continue to perform well in high-growth industries

Liuyao Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd. (603368): Pure drug sales continue to perform well in high-growth industries

Event: The company released its 18-year annual report. The income, net profit attributable to mothers and net profit attributable to non-mothers were 117.

1.4 billion, 5.

28 ppm and 5.

28 trillion, each year +24.

00%, +31.

59% and +31.

52%, slightly lower than our previous profit growth rate of 35%, mainly due to the increase in Q4 expenses and asset impairment.

The opinions are as follows: 18Q4 revenue maintained rapid growth, and profit growth fluctuated.

In 18Q4 income, net profit attributable to mothers and net profit attributable to non-mothers increased by +23 respectively.

99%, +21.

23% and +21.

36%; gross profit margin 12.

14%, an increase of 1 per year.

95 single, mainly due to the rapid growth of non-distribution high-margin business income.

We estimate that the growth rate of profit is lower than the growth rate of income mainly due to the impact of expenses and impairment: 1, 18Q3 cash acquisition of Vantone Pharmaceuticals, increased short-term expenses and financial expenses of Q4, total financial expenses of 18Q4 +16 million; 2, increaseAfter the 100 drugstores with the highest limit, Q4 has been regularly equipped with pharmacists and clerks. In the short term, labor costs and other expenses have been increased. 18Q4 sales expenses and management expenses have increased by +38.19 million yuan and +31.35 million yuan, respectively, both more than + 65%.

From the perspective of the highest split business, the income from the wholesale business increased by + 20%. We estimate that the revenue from the pure drug sales business increased by + 23%, maintaining a rapid growth; the gross profit margin was 8.

11%, ten years +0.

The advantages of 26 single, mature networks are gradually realized at the gross profit margin; the non-liuzhou region’s revenue continues to grow at a high rate (24% -30%), indicating that the company continues to vigorously promote the regional coverage of the distribution business; the number of equipment distribution increases by about 54%The future space is still vast.

The revenue of retail pharmacies is about + 50% per year. There are 443 pharmacies, of which 283 are medical insurance pharmacies, and pharmacies have been covered in 14 core cities in Guangxi.

In terms of industry, the income of Chinese herbal medicines1.

1.2 billion US dollars, in a rapid development; Chinese patent medicine (acquired Wantong Pharmaceutical) income for ten years.

6.5 billion, previously + 33%, profit of 86.39 million yuan, + 32% a year, we expect its 18Q4 consolidated 1500 or so, in 19 years while maintaining a rapid growth trend will contribute objective consolidated profits.

The stock repurchase can be used for 19 years of equity incentives to rationalize the benefits of middle-level backbone employees to promote growth.

The company’s recent share repurchase accounted for 1 of the company’s total share capital.

19%, holding cost price is 26.

Around 72 yuan / share.

For the 杭州桑拿网 upcoming 19-year equity incentive plan, all share repurchases are due to incentives, including 201 middle and senior executives including Tang Chunxue and Vice President Qiu Zhimeng.

06 yuan.

The conditions for unlocking stocks in developing countries are that incomes in 19-21 years are +18% / + 35% / + 50% respectively on the basis of 18 years.

The company estimates that the impact of budgeted stocks on profits in 19-21 will be 215.41 / 1579/502 million yuan.

Maintain “Highly Recommended-A” rating.

We expect the company’s attributable net profit growth in 2019-2021 to be 30% / 24% / 21%, and the corresponding EPS will be 2 respectively.

64/3.

27/3.

97 yuan; excluding equity incentive expenses, returning to the mother every year + 21% + 33% / 23% / 20% in 19-21, EPS is 2.

71/3.

33/3.

99 yuan.The current 四川耍耍网 market value corresponds to 19 years and pe is estimated to be around 12X.

As a regional pharmaceutical circulation leader, the company has deep industry barriers. The extension of the industrial chain provides strong support for the continued growth of future performance. The revenue structure continues to be optimized, and the “strongly recommended-A rating” is maintained.

Risk reminder: industry policy risk, risk of impairment of accounts receivable.

Perfect World (002624): Bright product flow performance drives high growth of gaming business; good performance of Chinese New Year games drives Q1 performance

Perfect World (002624): Bright product flow performance drives high growth of gaming business; good performance of Chinese New Year games drives Q1 performance

Event company released the 2019 annual 成都桑拿网 report performance bulletin, the company initially achieved operating income of 80 in 2019.

370,000 yuan, an increase of 0 in ten years.

05%; net profit attributable to mother 15.

4.0 billion, a decrease of 11 per year.

85%; Realize basic profit income1.

16 yuan, down 10 before.

77%.

According to the company’s democratic disclosure of annual report performance forecast (expected net profit in 2019 is 14.

5-15.

5 ppm), 2019 net profit is in the median of the forecast range, and performance is in line with expectations.

Brief Comment 1. The game business performed well in 2019, and it is worth looking forward to in 2020. According to the disclosure of the company’s performance newsletter, the company’s game business will achieve operating income 68 in 2019.

30,000 yuan, an annual increase of 25.

99%; net profit of 18.

80,000 yuan, an increase of 37 in ten years.

41%.

The outstanding performance of the company’s game sector in 2019 is better reflected on the profit side.

In the Air Force performance forecast, the game business’s net profit for 2019 is 18.

5-19.

2 ppm, the median value of the digital prior notice disclosed in this performance report, in line with market expectations.

It is obvious that the key game products launched in 2019, “Perfect World”, “Four Dreams of Cloud Dreams” and “My Origins”, allow third-party agency distribution and operation. Therefore, the company’s revenue confirmation is based on a certain consistency after players rechargeUndergo verification.

The self-developed games of military companies are mainly confirmed according to the total amount of players’ recharge, and are confirmed as costs through channel division.

If there is no change in the revenue recognition method for key games in 2019, the company’s game business revenue growth rate will be even brighter.

In March 2019, the company launched the “Perfect World” mobile game, which exceeded 1 billion in the first month; May “Cloud Dream Four Seasons Song” was launched; in late July, “The Condor Heroes 2” was launched, and the product has continued to rank among iOS games since its launch.Top 20 Bestsellers; In November, “My Origins” went live, and in December, “Xin Xiao Ao Jiang Hu” went live for nearly 400 million in the first month.

On the whole, the company’s game sector in 2019 has formed a more complete product matrix. The on-line progress and flow of game products have been dazzling.

The company’s reserve games in 2020 include “New Demon Continent”, “Fantasy New Legend”, “God of War”, “Very Heroes” mobile game, “Very Heroes 2” PC + console, “MagicLegends” PC + console, “Torchilight” “Frontiers” PC + console, etc., product types cover MMORPG, turn-based, ARPG, SLG, Roguelike, card and other types, involving future science fiction, two dimensions, ancient mythology, western magic, oriental fairy and many other possibilities.

At present, the “New Swordsman River”, which was launched in December 2019, remains stable in the next month, and will continue to contribute game flow to the company in 2020.

In addition, during the Spring Festival in 2020, it will be affected by the epidemic situation. Online entertainment consumption represented by games and Internet videos is in strong demand.

According to Qimai data, during the Spring Festival, the company’s “Perfect World” and “Xin Xiao Ao Jiang Jiang” performed well on the iOS bestseller list.

It is expected that the company’s 2020Q1 performance will be significantly accelerated.

In 2019, the company also made a breakthrough in the field of e-sports. Based on the two top-level e-sports masterpieces of “DOTA2” and “CS: GO”, it has established a multi-level and three-dimensional game system.

In August 2019, Perfect World assisted Valve to host the “DOTA2” 2019 International Invitational Tournament (Ti9) in Shanghai. This is also the first time that Ti series events have been held in China.

The company’s classic end-game products “Xianxian”, “Perfect World International Edition”, “DOTA2” and “CS: GO” continue to contribute stable income.

We believe that the company’s accumulation in the field of e-sports and end-games is also the basis for the subsequent company’s development in the field of cloud gaming.

2. Accelerating the digestion of inventory in the film and television business in 2020. As a whole, the company’s operating income in 2019 is basically the same as in 2018, mainly due to two reasons: 1) Asset category: The company separated its cinema business in 2018, and will not replace it in August 2018Consolidation scope.

The cinema business achieved operating income in 2018H14.

1.5 billion, the constant has a certain impact on the company’s growth base in 2019.

Without considering the impact of circuit replacement, the company’s initial revenue in 2019 will increase and increase6.

78% to 85.7.7 billion.

2) Business budget: Affected by the overall film and television industry policies in 2019, the company’s film and television business in 2019 achieved revenue of 12%.

100 million, a year-on-year decrease of 42.

54%.

Affected by the industry in 2019, the company’s film and television business saw a significant decrease in revenue and the film and television business was interrupted3.

10,000 yuan.

However, the company has dozens of product reserves in episodes, including the highly watched episodes such as “Eye of the Storm” and “Stewed Rock Sugar”.

In addition, there are “Half Life”, “Aspiring Flying”, “The Fire on the Moon”, “The Best You in the World”, “The Mountains”, “New Year After Year”, “Burning”, “Blue Helmets Squad”, “The Red Age of Gao Daxia”, “Seaport” and other drama reserves.

Affected by the epidemic in 2020Q1, multiple crews suspended the filming progress, which may affect the progress of this year’s episodes.

We believe that under special circumstances this year, the company will have a better opportunity to communicate with the platform side and speed up the progress of inventory digestion.

In addition, the company will accrue inventories for film and television business in 20193.

600 million.

3. The company plans to make provision for impairment of goodwill in 20193.

500 million US dollars, mainly due to the film and television company Tianjin Tongxin Film and Television formed goodwill.

According to the company’s 2019H1 disclosure, the company’s goodwill totals 9.

7.1 billion, of which Tianjin Tongxin film and television goodwill reached 6.

9.8 billion yuan.

After the impairment of goodwill on Tianjin Tongxin Film and Television, the company’s goodwill will further decline.

Tongxin Film and Television will make corresponding performance compensation to the listed company according to the performance compensation agreement.

[Investment suggestion]We believe that the company has cultivated in the game field for many years, and the game research and development ability has formed a high moat.

We are optimistic about the company’s mobile game 武汉桑拿洗浴会所 product reserve in 2020 and its subsequent layout in the field of cloud games.

It is estimated that the company’s attributable net profit will be 23 in 2020.

0 billion yuan, the current market value corresponds to 2020 price-earnings ratio of 28x, continue to recommend.

[Risk warning]The progress of the cloud game industry is expected gradually; the progress of the reserve game product launch or market performance is less than expected; the content supervision of the film and television industry is becoming more stringent, and the sales price or gross profit level of film and television projects is lower than expected

CRRC (601766) 2019 First Quarterly Report Review: Fast-growing first-quarter performance industry leader tries to create greater glories

CRRC (601766) 2019 First Quarterly Report Review: Fast-growing first-quarter performance industry leader tries to create greater glories

Key points of investment: Revenue in the first quarter and net profit attributable to mothers achieved rapid growth.

In the first quarter of 2019, the company achieved revenue of 396.

700 million, an annual increase of 20.

5%; net profit attributable to mother 17.

8 ‰, an increase of 40 in ten years.

2%; net profit after deduction is 14

80,000 yuan, an increase of 46 in ten years.

9%; profit achieved 0.

06 yuan.

In the first quarter, the railway market gradually recovered, and the company’s railway equipment and urban rail subway product revenue achieved rapid growth. The company’s new breakthrough orders were about US $ 61.4 billion, of which the international business contract amount was about US $ 7.2 billion.

The gross profit margin decreased slightly, the net profit margin continued to increase, and the expense ratio continued to optimize during the period.

In the first quarter, the company’s gross profit margin reached 22.

1%, reduced by 0 every year.

7pct; Net margin reaches 5.

1%, a year to raise 0.

5 points; expected average 苏州夜网论坛 return on net assets is 1.

4%, a year to raise 0.

3 points

The sales expense ratio / administrative expense ratio (including R & D) / financial expense ratio are 3 respectively.

2% / 11.

9% / 0.

7%, respectively reduced by 0.

3/1.

3/0.

1

In the first quarter, the company’s gross profit margin decreased slightly, the net profit rate increased, the average return on net assets continued to increase, the expense ratio continued to optimize during the period, and the company’s overall profitability improved.

In the first quarter, the company’s net cash flow from operating activities was -44.

600 million, an increase of 49 per year.

30,000 yuan, the cash flow situation has improved compared with the same period last year.

Railway equipment, urban rail and urban infrastructure businesses have grown significantly.

In the first quarter, the company’s railway equipment / urban rail and city Kiev machine station / new industry / modern service business respectively now have 210 revenue.

1/72.

4/95.

7/18.

500 million, an increase of 32 each year.

5% / 37.

9% / 15.

6% /-47.
6%, accounting for 53% of revenue.

0% / 18.
2% / 24.

1% / 4.

7%.

The railway equipment business has grown significantly, with locomotive, passenger car, EMU and truck business revenues reaching 42 respectively.

1, 32.

3, 99.

4, 36.

400000000.

The company’s sales of urban rail subway products in the first quarter increased, which helped the rapid growth of urban rail and urban infrastructure business.

In the new industry business, general mechanical and electrical business income grew rapidly.

In the first quarter, the revenue of modern service business dropped sharply, mainly due to the supplementary logistics business.

The peak purchase period of trucks and locomotives, and the overhaul of EMUs helped boost the high prosperity of the rail transit equipment industry.

In 2018, the State Council issued the “Three-year Action Plan to Promote the Adjustment of Transport Structure (2018-2020)”. By 2020, the national railway freight volume will increase by 11 billion tons or 30% compared with 2017.

In 2019, the nation’s railway fixed asset investment continued to maintain its intensity and scale, and 6,800 kilometers of new lines were put into production.

Trucks and locomotives ushered in the peak purchase period.

In addition, EMUs are gradually embracing a period of intensive advanced repairs, which will help push the railroad cross-linking equipment industry to continue a high boom, and the company’s performance is expected to continue to grow rapidly.

Investment suggestion: The company is a world leader in rail transit equipment. With the recovery of the industry boom, the company’s performance promotes rapid growth.

We expect the company’s expected earnings in 2019/2020 to be 0.

47/0.

53 yuan, the current sustainable corresponding PE is 18.

1/16.

0 times, giving the company a “Recommended” rating.

Risk reminder: Macroeconomic fluctuations, deterioration of the overseas trade environment, policy advancement is less than expected, and performance is less than expected.

Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (601398) 2019 Third Quarterly Report Review: Asset Quality Continues to Improve, Core Asset Value Revealed

Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (601398) 2019 Third Quarterly Report Review: Asset Quality Continues to Improve, Core Asset Value Revealed

Event: The first three quarters of ICBC’s operating income was 6,469.

42 ppm, an increase of 12 in ten years.

11%, net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company was 2517.

12 ppm, an increase of 5 in ten years.

04%, the corresponding EPS is 0.

71 yuan / share; 30 total assets at the end of the period.

43 trillion yuan, an increase of 9 over the beginning of the period.

84%, net assets attributable to ordinary shareholders2.

42 trillion, an increase of 7 from the beginning of the period.

8%, corresponding to a BVPS of 6.

79 yuan / share.

Investment Highlights Profit Forecast and Investment Grade: ICBC’s third quarter report is excellent. The core highlight is the increase in profit growth + further improvement in asset quality. In a challenging external environment, the company has demonstrated its unique stabilityAdvantage.

It is estimated that the company’s net profit attributable to shareholders of the parent company in 2019 and 2020 will be 5 respectively.

2%, 6.

1%, ROAE reached 13.

09%, 12.

67%, the current valuation of A shares, H shares are 0.

86, 0.

73x2019PB, corresponding to a dividend yield of 4 in 2019.

41%, 5.

25%.

Considering that the asset quality continues to improve and the estimate is still at a historically low level, we believe that it is a high-quality core bank asset. The current estimate does not match the fundamentals. Therefore, we have upgraded the company’s rating to “Buy” and invested in pursuit of stable dividends and long-term returnsRecommended.

The increase in profit growth is due to lower credit costs and excellent asset management capabilities. ROAE and ROAA are excellent.

The company’s first three quarters of revenue / PPOP increased by 12 respectively.

1% / 9.

4%, the growth rate is slower than that of the interim report, mainly due to the single quarter growth rate of index net income instead of 5.

4% (in the first and second quarters increased by 8.

2%, 7.

5%), mainly because the ten-year base was higher, in fact, the net interest income in the third quarter reached 1538.

45 ppm, which is higher than the highest two quarters, and the increase is more than the second quarter (feedback of credit from servo industry research feedback)

Although revenue growth has slowed, profit growth has increased to 5 compared to the interim report.

04%, the previous market expectations, and means that the third quarter single-quarter profit growth hit a new high of 5.

8%, pushing ROAA to continue to rise slightly to 1.

18%, a comparable bank that clearly and simultaneously disclosed three quarterly reports, has outstanding asset management capabilities.

The strong earnings growth was mainly due to the improvement in credit costs (the provision in the first half of the year contributed negatively to profit opportunities), so the cost-to-income ratio remained at 20.

01% low, decreasing by 1 every year.

06pct, is expected to maintain the optimal level of conventional big banks, and continue to form a positive contribution to profitability.

The net interest margin was lower than the 3BP expectation, which confirms our prediction of the slow pace of narrowing bank spreads.The company’s net interest margin in the first three quarters was 3BP to 2 lower than the mid-term report.

At 26%, we estimate that the net interest margin in a single quarter will decrease by about 6BP month-on-month. Under the external market environment of “downward loan interest rates and rising debt costs”, the narrowing trend of net interest margin will be determined.At the beginning of the LPR restructuring, the market’s pessimistic expectation of a rapid decline in net interest margin was significantly repaired.

Looking forward to the fourth quarter, we expect budget costs to remain slightly upward pressure, as returning customer funds from high-yield financial products to bank savings will require a process of adaptation, but new regulations on structural deposits will force banks to control debt costs.

On the asset side, we expect that the rate of decline in loan yield will be limited. Under the external environment of macroeconomic downside and retail business credit risk rising overall, it is expected that the risk premium will cause the financing interest rate to decline.Need to wait and see the return on assets.

The continuous improvement of asset quality against the trend is the biggest highlight of the fundamentals, and maintain confidence in the asset quality of conventional big banks.

The company’s NPL ratio further decreased by the end of September.

44% (interim report 1.

48%). At the same time, we see that the credit cost has fallen and the provision coverage ratio has risen to 198% (interim report 192%). It can cut the optimization of credit 四川耍耍网 structure and the use of fintech to control the quality of assets. We judge threeIndicators such as quarterly overdue rate and non-performing rate also improved simultaneously.

Looking ahead, considering the increasing downward pressure on the macro economy, asset quality will still be the key point of the market’s core challenges. Taking into account factors such as non-performing asset recognition standards, risk management performance, and customer quality, we will consider the assets of the National Bank of China, such as ICBC.Overall confidence in quality.

Risk reminders: 1) Macroeconomic downturn, asset quality is under pressure; 2) Resistance costs go up, interest margins continue to narrow; 3) Credit demand is weak and scale growth is sluggish.

Satellite Petrochemical (002648): Q3 pre-increased by 46% -52% to maintain a high business climate

Satellite Petrochemical (002648): Q3 pre-increased by 46% -52% to maintain a high business climate

Net profit in the first three quarters increased by 46% -52%, in line with market expectations. Satellite Petrochemical released the first three quarters of 2019 performance forecast on October 14, and the company achieved net profit9.

1-9.

50,000 yuan, a year-on-year increase of 46% -52%, and performance is in line with expectations.

Follow the current 10.

6.6 billion shares of the total equity calculation, the corresponding EPS is 0.

85-0.

89 yuan.

Corresponding to the third quarter of 2019 to achieve net profit3.

53-3天津夜网.

930,000 yuan, an increase of 19% -33% in ten years.

We expect the company’s EPS for 2019-2021 to be 1.

36/1.

71/2.

07 yuan, maintaining the “overweight” level.

The main product has a high degree of prosperity, and the second phase of PDH put into operation contributes a certain incremental increase. The company’s combined products have a high degree of carbonic acid and ester.Is 0.

78/0.

92 million / ton, down 4% / 9% in ten years, and the average price difference of acrylic-nylon expanded 19% to 0.

In terms of (poly) mm business, the average PP / propylene prices in East China in the first three quarters of 2019 were 0.

94/0.

74 million / ton, down 6% / 12% in half a year, and the PP-Millennium average spread dropped by 2% to 0 per second.

550,000 yuan / ton, of which Q3 PP-annual average spread increases by 9% to 0.

580,000 yuan / ton, the profitability of PDH business has picked up.

In addition, it was reported that the initial company’s annual output of 45 inserted PDH phase II project and annual output of 15 inserted PP second phase project were successfully put into operation and running well, and also contributed a certain performance increase.

Acrylic boom rebounded slightly, polypropylene prices stabilized It is said that Baichuan Information. The price of acrylic acid (general acid) in East China stabilized in mid-October. The latest offer price was 7,150 yuan / ton, which rose earlier in early July.

At 1%, the latest acrylic-propylene spread was 1768 yuan / ton, which rose by 18 in early July.

For polypropylene, the price of PP in East China was 9,500 yuan / ton in mid-October, up 4 at the end of August earlier.

4%, PP-alkaline spread is 5146 yuan / ton, narrowed by 8 at the end of August.

5%.

As the demand season continues, oil prices have generally strengthened, and the acrylic and polypropylene boom is expected to gradually improve.

The construction of the preliminary split project went smoothly. The company announced that it plans to raise US $ 3 billion in funds for the construction of the Lianyungang project in 7 months. The CSRC has received feedback from the CSRC on changes to the split project, project design, terminal approval, and additional storageTank construction progressed smoothly. The company expects the first phase of 125 ethylene and supporting capacity to be put into production in 2020Q3.

We maintain “Overweight” rating and we expect the company’s EPS to be 1 in 2019-2021.

36/1.

71/2.

07 yuan, the estimated level of merger of comparable companies (13 times PE in 2019), giving the company 12-13 in 2019.

5 times PE, corresponding to a target price of 16.

32-18.

36 yuan (original value of 17.

68-19.04 yuan), maintaining the “overweight” level.

Risk warning: New business development is less than expected risk, and downstream demand reduces risk.

China Micro Corporation (688012): Three Quarterly Reports Brilliant Results Fully Benefit from Domestic Alternatives

China Micro Corporation (688012): Three Quarterly Reports Brilliant Results Fully Benefit from Domestic Alternatives

Event: In the first three quarters of 2019, the company achieved operating income12.

180,000 yuan, an increase of 24 in ten years.

75%; net profit attributable to mothers1.

350,000 yuan, an increase of 399 in ten years.

14%.

The average growth rate of revenue and net profit exceeded market expectations.

Memory localization has become a trend, and the company helps domestic manufacturers reduce costs.

Memory localization has become an inevitable trend. With the support of national policies, domestic high-quality memory manufacturers such as Changjiang 杭州桑拿网 Storage have emerged.

The company has many years of technology accumulation in the semiconductor equipment industry, and the etching equipment produced has replaced the production lines of international first-line chip manufacturing plants such as TSMC.

The price of the company’s etching machine is much lower than that of international manufacturers, which can reduce the cost of domestic chip manufacturers and fully meet the needs of domestic chip manufacturers.

At present, the company has become a major supplier of domestic warehouses such as Yangtze River Storage, and its market share has continued to increase.

MOCVD equipment business is still dazzling, and its market share continues to increase.

MOCVD equipment is the company’s star product.

Since 2017, the company has obtained a large number of domestic LED leading manufacturers’ batch orders, successfully broke the MOCVD market structure, and seized the market share of international manufacturers such as Veeco.

Although the LED industry is in a downturn, the company’s MOCVD equipment is still improving, providing stable guarantee for the company’s performance.

R & D promotes continuous improvement, and the domestic substitution trend remains unchanged.

In the first three quarters, the company invested R & D expenses1.

5.8 billion, an annual increase of 100.

82%.

In the field of semiconductor equipment, the company is still in the process of catching up and surpassing. The engineer bonus and clear technical path have brought the company high research and development efficiency.

The continuous high R & D investment to replace the vast market of domestic substitution, the company is expected to fully benefit.

Company earnings forecast and investment rating: We expect the company’s net profit for 2019-2021 to be 1.

94, 2.

92 and 4.

50,000 yuan, the corresponding EPS is 0.

36, 0.

55 and 0.

76 yuan.

The current anniversary corresponds to a PE value of 181, 121 and 87 times for 2019-2021.

As a domestic semiconductor manufacturing equipment leader, the company will lead the wave of domestic substitution of semiconductor equipment.

We are optimistic about the future profitability of the company’s advanced etching machine products and maintain the “strong recommendation” level.

  Risk Warning: The progress of new product development is less than expected, and the global semiconductor industry is less than expected.

Hanchuan Intelligent (688022): Leading automotive electronics equipment company focuses on technological innovation and accumulates a large number of core technologies

Hanchuan Intelligent (688022): Leading automotive electronics equipment company focuses on technological innovation and accumulates a large number of core technologies

Report summary: Automotive electronics technology has become the core technology of the modern automotive industry. The high prosperity of downstream industries and the increase in the proportion of automotive electronic bicycles have driven the demand for equipment.

1) The size of China’s automotive electronics market increased from 32.8 billion US dollars in 2010 to 72.3 billion US dollars in 2016, with an average annual compound growth rate of 14%, and it is expected to reach 105.8 billion US dollars by 2020, and maintain a compound value-added of more than 10% in the next few yearsSpeed, the downstream industry maintains a high prosperity; 2) The electrification of automobiles and the trend of network connectivity are obvious, and the proportion of automotive electronics costs to the total vehicle costs has gradually increased. It is expected that the current 40% will increase to 50% or even higher in 2030Technology resonance will directly benefit the automotive electronics equipment industry.

Leading automotive electronics equipment company to accelerate the layout of medical health and new energy battery business.

Hanchuan is based on the automotive electronic equipment industry and is a leader in the domestic automotive electronic equipment industry. The equipment is mainly used in connectors, sensors and other fields. Its main customers include Tyco, China and other first-tier international companies. It is also one of the few domestic companies that has gone abroad.An enterprise that has won the core production line intelligent project of a world-renowned enterprise.

Downstream customers ‘capital expenditures are steadily increasing, and their proportion in customers has gradually increased. There is also room for breakthroughs in the future.

In addition, the fields of medical and health care, new energy batteries, and smart manufacturing business are further developed.

Focus on technological innovation, and continue to develop and accumulate a large number of core technologies.

Decades of independent research and development and industrial accumulation have created a highly competitive intelligent manufacturing product technology for the company, and accumulated a variety of core technologies such as embedded technology and machine vision technology.

From 2016 to 2018, the company’s R & D expenses were 11.43 million, 12.67 million and 19.6 million, and the R & D expansion continued to grow. At the end of 2018, there were 163 R & D personnel, accounting for 23.

12%.

Investment suggestion: It is expected that the company’s net profit attributable to the mother in 2019-2021 will be 0.

9.8 billion, 1.

2.7 billion and 1.

6.2 billion.

Hanchuan Intelligent and comparable companies are both emerging high-growth industries and have achieved considerable revenue and profit volume. We believe that the 都市夜网 comprehensive use of price-earnings ratio (PE) and market-sales ratio (PS) is reasonable and reasonable.The intelligent reasonable market value interval is (29.

45 billion, 34.

8.5 billion), 27 million shares to be publicly issued this time, accounting for 25 of the total issued share capital.

00%, the total share capital of the company after this issuance is 108 million shares, corresponding to a span of (27.

27 yuan, 32.

27 yuan).

Risk warning: Downstream industry development is less than expected; new customer expansion is less than expected

Jiuzhou Pharmaceutical (603456): Acquisition of Suzhou Novartis and PHARMAGRA of the United States to improve business capabilities and scope

Jiuzhou Pharmaceutical (603456): Acquisition of Suzhou Novartis and PHARMAGRA of the United States to improve business capabilities and scope

Event: ① On September 4, 19, the company issued an announcement that the company and Novartis signed the “Equity Acquisition Agreement”, and planned to acquire Novartis Suzhou’s Novartis after the acquisition of alternative technology and drug development assets, with a transaction price forecast of 7.

RMB 90,000.

At the same time, the two parties reached an agreement on the contents of a “manufacturing and supply agreement”. Within 5 years from the date of delivery, the company will supply Novartis with three APIs or intermediates to Novartis through Suzhou Novartis.Under the premise that the conditions are met, the agreement can be renewed for 5 years.

② On September 11, 19, the company issued an announcement that the company ‘s wholly-owned subsidiary Ruibo Pharmaceutical intends to acquire Peter Newsome with self-raised funds of 16 million U.S. dollars, and certain companies held by Roger Frisbee PharmAgra Labs And 100% equity of PharmAgra Holding Company.

Acquired Novartis subsidiary plant, expanded the company’s production capacity, and improved the company’s ability to provide expected production services.

Novartis Suzhou is a pharmaceutical company invested by Novartis in China. It is located in Changshu, Jiangsu Province, and covers an area of about 230,000 square meters. It has more than 400 employees, including more than 40 doctors and more than 70 masters.

Novartis Suzhou has established a number of high-efficiency production lines, and has continuous and enzymatically catalyzed reaction process equipment. The innovative drug treatment areas corresponding to related APIs and intermediate products include anti-heart failure, hypertension and leukemia.

Agree with Novartis on the content of a new order. It is expected that the company’s order from Novartis will increase in the future.

The company will provide Novartis with APIs or intermediates for several pharmaceutical products (anti-heart failure, diabetes and leukemia products) through the acquisition of Suzhou Novartis. The cooperation period is 5 years. After 5 years, the conditions will still be met if the conditions are met.Renewable.

It is expected that after the manufacturing and supply agreement comes into effect, the amount of the company’s orders from Novartis will increase significantly.

The company has a solid cooperative relationship with Novartis, and it is highly likely that the long-term cooperative relationship will be maintained.

For Novartis, finding a trustworthy partner that meets quality requirements takes time and capital costs.

Long-term and in-depth cooperation with the same expansion company is conducive to improving the production and research and development efficiency of pharmaceutical companies.

The company has established a cooperative relationship with Novartis since the 1990s, and has repeatedly received EHS audits from large pharmaceutical companies such as Novartis. All of them passed smoothly and the service quality was guaranteed.

This time, the company plans to acquire a subsidiary plant of Novartis, and it is expected that it will provide production services to Novartis through this plant, and the solid cooperation relationship between the company and Novartis is continuously strengthened.

The acquisition of PharmAgra Labs will increase the global strategic layout of the global CDMO business.

PharmAgra Labs, which the company intends to acquire this time, is a CRO and CDMO company with more than 20 years of experience in pharmaceutical outsourcing services. The main customer is a US-based pharmaceutical 四川耍耍网 company that mainly provides CMC and CRO services from preclinical to phase I clinical stages.

The company team currently has 30 employees, including 16 PhDs.

PharmAgra Lab’s 2018 net profit was $ 1.76 million.

PharmAgra Holding Company does not engage in substantive operations, mainly holding land and property where PharmAgra Labs operates.

The acquisition can help the company expand its business scope and improve its business capabilities, while at the same time attracting more overseas customers’ interests.

Ruibo Pharmaceuticals will obtain existing customer resources, R & D equipment and technical staff of PharmAgra Labs, which will complement the company’s CMC / CRO business capabilities in preclinical and phase I clinical stages, so that the company can use PharmAgra Labs’ existing customer resources andInfluence 杭州桑拿网 is gradually attracting more customers in the United States.

Investment suggestion: Buy-A investment rating, 6-month target price of 15.

00 yuan.

We expect the company’s revenue growth to be 14 in 2019-2021.

6%, 15.

9%, 16.

2%, net profit growth rate was 75.

1%, 31.

8%, 24.

2%, outstanding growth; given Buy-A investment rating, 6-month target price is 15.

00 yuan, equivalent to 33 times the dynamic price-earnings ratio in 2020.

Risk reminder: the growth of the order quantity is less than expected, the market competition is intensifying and the order price is lowered, the industry is weaker than expected, the company’s business development is less than expected, exchange rate risk, goodwill impairment risk, the risk that the transaction may not be delivered, etc.